Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of year |
Awards
during year |
Terminations
during year |
In force
end of year |
Current-payment status
end of year |
||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of year |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of year |
Average
benefit |
||
Mothers
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
620.4
|
$216.02
|
99.9
|
$247.60
|
110.6
|
0.9655
|
$238.39
|
609.7
|
$248.57
|
1.0026
|
$249.21
|
1985
|
3.1
|
417.8
|
327.14
|
67.0
|
324.39
|
80.1
|
.9479
|
319.69
|
404.6
|
338.63
|
1.0017
|
339.20
|
1990
|
5.4
|
347.5
|
392.89
|
52.6
|
407.24
|
60.2
|
.9761
|
404.20
|
339.9
|
414.80
|
1.0050
|
416.88
|
1995
|
2.6
|
312.8
|
467.26
|
46.6
|
473.80
|
53.8
|
.9766
|
468.21
|
305.6
|
480.53
|
1.0099
|
485.28
|
1996
|
2.9
|
305.6
|
480.53
|
43.5
|
507.26
|
54.2
|
.8654
|
427.89
|
294.9
|
508.59
|
1.0216
|
519.56
|
1997
|
2.1
|
294.9
|
508.59
|
39.3
|
531.13
|
52.0
|
.9722
|
504.85
|
282.2
|
523.57
|
1.0246
|
536.45
|
1998
|
1.3
|
282.2
|
523.57
|
38.1
|
543.99
|
48.2
|
.9757
|
517.50
|
272.2
|
534.56
|
1.0278
|
549.43
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
272.2
|
534.56
|
37.5
|
580.29
|
47.1
|
.9891
|
541.94
|
262.6
|
553.63
|
1.0299
|
570.19
|
2000
|
3.5
|
262.6
|
553.63
|
35.9
|
611.64
|
46.3
|
.9801
|
561.60
|
252.2
|
580.60
|
1.0328
|
599.67
|
2001
|
2.6
|
252.2
|
580.60
|
36.2
|
646.60
|
44.6
|
.9833
|
585.72
|
243.7
|
605.08
|
1.0341
|
625.73
|
2002
|
1.4
|
243.7
|
605.08
|
36.5
|
665.38
|
43.7
|
.9738
|
597.45
|
236.5
|
624.53
|
1.0336
|
645.53
|
2003
|
2.1
|
236.5
|
624.53
|
34.7
|
688.78
|
41.2
|
.9797
|
624.68
|
230.1
|
647.68
|
1.0336
|
669.47
|
2004
|
2.7
|
230.1
|
647.68
|
35.5
|
704.51
|
42.5
|
.9326
|
620.32
|
223.1
|
679.98
|
1.0229
|
695.52
|
2005
|
2.0
|
223.1
|
679.98
|
35.0
|
722.19
|
40.2
|
.9744
|
675.82
|
217.8
|
701.46
|
1.0229
|
717.49
|
2006
|
2.2
|
217.8
|
701.46
|
34.8
|
744.46
|
39.5
|
.9739
|
698.21
|
213.2
|
724.85
|
1.0229
|
741.42
|
2007
|
2.7
|
213.2
|
724.85
|
34.7
|
772.57
|
38.7
|
.9735
|
724.72
|
209.2
|
752.74
|
1.0229
|
769.94
|
2008
|
2.8
|
209.2
|
752.74
|
34.6
|
803.14
|
38.1
|
.9737
|
753.49
|
205.7
|
782.51
|
1.0229
|
800.39
|
2009
|
2.8
|
205.7
|
782.51
|
34.5
|
835.62
|
37.7
|
.9745
|
783.88
|
202.4
|
813.56
|
1.0229
|
832.15
|
2010
|
2.8
|
202.4
|
813.56
|
34.3
|
870.56
|
37.1
|
.9756
|
815.90
|
199.7
|
846.01
|
1.0229
|
865.35
|
2011
|
2.8
|
199.7
|
846.01
|
34.2
|
905.65
|
36.6
|
.9760
|
848.84
|
197.3
|
879.80
|
1.0229
|
899.91
|
2012
|
2.8
|
197.3
|
879.80
|
34.2
|
941.01
|
36.2
|
.9765
|
883.22
|
195.3
|
914.77
|
1.0229
|
935.67
|
2013
|
2.8
|
195.3
|
914.77
|
34.2
|
978.14
|
35.8
|
.9771
|
918.86
|
193.6
|
951.02
|
1.0229
|
972.76
|
2014
|
2.8
|
193.6
|
951.02
|
34.1
|
1,016.96
|
35.5
|
.9774
|
955.52
|
192.3
|
988.72
|
1.0229
|
1,011.31
|
Fathers
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
14.3
|
21.0
|
142.29
|
7.9
|
151.50
|
5.8
|
.9141
|
148.67
|
23.1
|
162.35
|
.8808
|
142.99
|
1985
|
3.1
|
27.2
|
210.92
|
5.3
|
205.48
|
4.7
|
.9753
|
212.08
|
27.8
|
216.10
|
.9045
|
195.47
|
1990
|
5.4
|
26.4
|
273.86
|
4.6
|
291.67
|
4.4
|
.9363
|
270.27
|
26.6
|
292.18
|
.9055
|
264.56
|
1995
|
2.6
|
23.6
|
345.76
|
4.7
|
367.05
|
4.8
|
.9258
|
328.43
|
23.5
|
362.64
|
.9688
|
351.33
|
1996
|
2.9
|
23.5
|
362.64
|
4.1
|
403.82
|
5.0
|
.7753
|
289.31
|
22.6
|
397.41
|
1.0460
|
415.68
|
1997
|
2.1
|
22.6
|
397.41
|
3.6
|
424.84
|
4.7
|
.9441
|
383.08
|
21.5
|
413.98
|
1.0577
|
437.88
|
1998
|
1.3
|
21.5
|
413.98
|
3.8
|
435.85
|
4.2
|
.9492
|
398.08
|
21.0
|
426.62
|
1.0624
|
453.22
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
21.0
|
426.62
|
3.8
|
459.55
|
4.1
|
.9610
|
420.23
|
20.7
|
444.67
|
1.0663
|
474.13
|
2000
|
3.5
|
20.7
|
444.67
|
3.8
|
496.11
|
4.1
|
.9571
|
440.49
|
20.5
|
470.91
|
1.0676
|
502.76
|
2001
|
2.6
|
20.5
|
470.91
|
4.1
|
531.16
|
4.2
|
.9661
|
466.80
|
20.4
|
496.08
|
1.0645
|
528.10
|
2002
|
1.4
|
20.4
|
496.08
|
4.3
|
532.62
|
4.2
|
.9410
|
473.36
|
20.5
|
515.23
|
1.0625
|
547.43
|
2003
|
2.1
|
20.5
|
515.23
|
4.5
|
550.30
|
4.3
|
.9335
|
491.06
|
20.7
|
538.60
|
1.0592
|
570.46
|
2004
|
2.7
|
20.7
|
538.60
|
4.5
|
576.43
|
4.5
|
.9082
|
502.36
|
20.7
|
569.36
|
1.0435
|
594.10
|
2005
|
2.0
|
20.7
|
569.36
|
4.4
|
590.90
|
4.4
|
.9593
|
557.11
|
20.7
|
587.98
|
1.0435
|
613.53
|
2006
|
2.2
|
20.7
|
587.98
|
4.4
|
609.11
|
4.4
|
.9603
|
577.05
|
20.7
|
607.79
|
1.0435
|
634.21
|
2007
|
2.7
|
20.7
|
607.79
|
4.4
|
632.11
|
4.4
|
.9609
|
599.77
|
20.6
|
631.15
|
1.0435
|
658.58
|
2008
|
2.8
|
20.6
|
631.15
|
4.4
|
657.13
|
4.4
|
.9614
|
623.77
|
20.6
|
655.99
|
1.0435
|
684.50
|
2009
|
2.8
|
20.6
|
655.99
|
4.4
|
683.70
|
4.4
|
.9623
|
648.97
|
20.5
|
681.85
|
1.0435
|
711.48
|
2010
|
2.8
|
20.5
|
681.85
|
4.3
|
712.29
|
4.4
|
.9636
|
675.40
|
20.4
|
708.89
|
1.0435
|
739.69
|
2011
|
2.8
|
20.4
|
708.89
|
4.3
|
741.00
|
4.4
|
.9635
|
702.13
|
20.3
|
737.11
|
1.0435
|
769.14
|
2012
|
2.8
|
20.3
|
737.11
|
4.3
|
769.94
|
4.4
|
.9638
|
730.29
|
20.3
|
766.29
|
1.0435
|
799.59
|
2013
|
2.8
|
20.3
|
766.29
|
4.3
|
800.32
|
4.4
|
.9641
|
759.47
|
20.2
|
796.56
|
1.0435
|
831.18
|
2014
|
2.8
|
20.2
|
796.56
|
4.3
|
832.08
|
4.4
|
.9644
|
789.67
|
20.2
|
828.01
|
1.0435
|
864.00
|
1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.