Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar year
|
Annual percentage change in--
|
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|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Productivity:
Total U.S. economy1 |
Average
hours worked3 |
GDP
price index4 |
Consumer
Price Index6 |
Real-wage
differential7 |
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|
1975
|
2.7
|
-1.0
|
-1.7
|
9.5
|
6.7
|
9.1
|
-2.4
|
|
1976
|
2.4
|
-0.9
|
-0.4
|
5.8
|
8.5
|
5.7
|
2.8
|
|
1977
|
1.1
|
-0.7
|
-0.1
|
6.4
|
6.8
|
6.5
|
0.3
|
|
1978
|
0.8
|
-0.3
|
0.4
|
7.0
|
11.6
|
7.7
|
3.9
|
|
1979
|
0.5
|
-0.3
|
-0.1
|
8.3
|
9.8
|
11.4
|
-1.6
|
|
1980
|
0.0
|
-0.5
|
-0.8
|
9.1
|
6.7
|
13.4
|
-6.7
|
|
1981
|
2.3
|
-0.4
|
-0.9
|
9.4
|
10.8
|
10.3
|
0.6
|
|
1982
|
-0.5
|
-0.5
|
-0.7
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
6.0
|
0.3
|
|
1983
|
2.7
|
-0.2
|
0.5
|
3.9
|
4.2
|
3.0
|
1.2
|
|
1984
|
2.1
|
0.0
|
0.9
|
3.8
|
6.0
|
3.5
|
2.5
|
|
1985
|
1.8
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
3.0
|
6.0
|
3.5
|
2.6
|
|
1986
|
2.3
|
0.0
|
-1.1
|
2.2
|
4.6
|
1.6
|
3.0
|
|
1987
|
0.7
|
0.3
|
0.1
|
2.7
|
4.6
|
3.6
|
1.0
|
|
1988
|
1.1
|
0.2
|
0.8
|
3.4
|
5.3
|
4.0
|
1.3
|
|
1989
|
0.7
|
-0.1
|
0.8
|
3.8
|
3.9
|
4.8
|
-0.9
|
|
1990
|
1.6
|
-0.1
|
-0.9
|
3.9
|
5.1
|
5.2
|
-0.1
|
|
1991
|
1.2
|
-0.7
|
-0.4
|
3.5
|
3.0
|
4.1
|
-1.1
|
|
1992
|
3.2
|
0.2
|
-0.4
|
2.3
|
4.9
|
2.9
|
2.0
|
|
1993
|
0.3
|
-0.9
|
1.1
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
-0.9
|
|
1994
|
0.9
|
-0.3
|
0.8
|
2.1
|
3.7
|
2.5
|
1.3
|
|
1995
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
1.0
|
2.0
|
4.7
|
2.9
|
1.8
|
|
1996
|
2.4
|
1.1
|
-0.1
|
1.9
|
4.0
|
2.9
|
1.1
|
|
1997
|
1.5
|
0.8
|
0.8
|
1.7
|
5.6
|
2.3
|
3.4
|
|
1998
|
1.9
|
0.2
|
0.8
|
1.1
|
6.2
|
1.3
|
4.8
|
|
1999
|
2.3
|
0.1
|
0.5
|
1.4
|
4.8
|
2.2
|
2.6
|
|
2000
|
2.4
|
0.1
|
-1.2
|
2.2
|
6.1
|
3.5
|
2.6
|
|
2001
|
2.0
|
-0.3
|
-1.3
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
2.7
|
-0.8
|
|
2002
|
3.2
|
-1.3
|
-1.0
|
1.7
|
0.4
|
1.4
|
-1.0
|
|
2003
|
3.5
|
-0.8
|
-1.4
|
1.8
|
2.6
|
2.2
|
0.4
|
|
2004
|
3.3
|
-0.5
|
0.0
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
2.6
|
1.2
|
|
2005
|
2.0
|
-.4
|
-.1
|
1.6
|
4.2
|
2.2
|
2.1
|
|
2006
|
2.0
|
.0
|
.0
|
1.8
|
4.3
|
2.2
|
2.2
|
|
2007
|
1.8
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.3
|
4.4
|
2.6
|
1.8
|
|
2008
|
1.8
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.3
|
2.8
|
1.5
|
|
2009
|
1.8
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
|
2010
|
1.7
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
|
2011
|
1.7
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.1
|
2.8
|
1.3
|
|
2012
|
1.7
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.2
|
2.8
|
1.4
|
|
2013
|
1.6
|
-.1
|
.0
|
2.5
|
4.0
|
2.8
|
1.2
|
|
2014
|
1.6
|
-.2
|
.0
|
2.5
|
3.9
|
2.8
|
1.1
|
| 1Total U.S. economy productivity is the ratio of gross domestic product (GDP) to total hours worked by all workers. 2The ratio of total earnings to total compensation. Total earnings is the sum of wage and salary disbursements and proprietor's income. Total compensation is the sum of employee compensation and proprietor's income. 3Average hours worked per week is the ratio of total hours worked to total employment in the U.S. economy. 4The GDP price index measures the prices paid for goods and services produced by the U.S. economy. 5Total wages per worker in employment covered by the OASDI program. 6The Consumer Price Index is the average annual value for the calendar year of the Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers (CPI-W). 7The real-wage differential is the difference between nominal wage growth and inflation. This differential is calculated as the percent change in average annual covered wages minus the percent change in the average annual CPI-W. Numbers may not add due to rounding. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A1 and V.B1 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.