Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

Table II.2.—Additional Economic Factors
(Calendar years 1975-2014)
Calendar year
Average annual
unemployment rate1
(percent)
Average annual percentage change in--
 
Labor force1
Total employment2
Real GDP3
Average annual
interest rate4
(percent)
1975
8.5
2.0
-1.1
-0.2
7.4
1976
7.7
2.5
3.3
5.3
7.1
1977
7.1
2.9
3.6
4.6
7.1
1978
6.1
3.3
4.3
5.6
8.2
1979
5.9
2.7
2.8
3.2
9.1
1980
7.2
1.9
.5
-.2
11.0
1981
7.6
1.6
1.1
2.5
13.3
1982
9.7
1.4
-.8
-1.9
12.8
1983
9.6
1.2
1.3
4.5
11.0
1984
7.5
1.8
4.1
7.2
12.4
1985
7.2
1.7
2.0
4.1
10.8
1986
7.0
2.1
2.2
3.5
8.0
1987
6.2
1.7
2.6
3.4
8.4
1988
5.5
1.5
2.2
4.1
8.8
1989
5.3
1.8
2.0
3.5
8.7
1990
5.6
1.6
1.2
1.9
8.6
1991
6.9
.4
-.9
-.2
8.0
1992
7.5
1.4
.5
3.3
7.1
1993
6.9
.8
1.3
2.7
6.1
1994
6.1
1.4
2.2
4.0
7.1
1995
5.6
1.0
1.4
2.5
6.9
1996
5.4
1.2
1.4
3.7
6.6
1997
4.9
1.8
2.2
4.5
6.6
1998
4.5
1.0
1.4
4.2
5.6
1999
4.2
1.2
1.5
4.4
5.9
2000
4.0
2.3
2.5
3.7
6.2
2001
4.8
.8
.0
.8
5.2
2002
5.8
.8
-.3
1.9
4.9
2003
6.0
1.1
.9
3.0
4.1
2004
5.5
0.6
1.1
4.4
4.3
2005
5.4
1.6
1.7
3.6
4.2
2006
5.3
1.4
1.5
3.5
5.1
2007
5.3
1.1
1.1
3.0
5.5
2008
5.4
.9
.8
2.7
5.6
2009
5.4
.8
.8
2.5
5.6
2010
5.5
.8
.7
2.5
5.7
2011
5.5
.8
.7
2.4
5.8
2012
5.5
.6
.6
2.3
5.8
2013
5.5
.6
.6
2.2
5.8
2014
5.5
.6
.6
2.1
5.8

1Civilian.

2Civilian employment plus U.S. Armed Forces.

3The real gross domestic product (GDP) is the market value of all final goods and services produced by labor and property located in the U.S., expressed in 2000 dollars.

4The average annual interest rate is the average of the 12 monthly nominal interest rates for special public-debt obligations issuable to the trust funds. In practice, these rates are compounded semiannually.

Sources:

Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A2 and V.B2 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.


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