Short-Range Actuarial Projections
of the Old-Age, Survivors, and
Disability Insurance Program, 2005

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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos
and Richard B. Tucker

Table II.6.—Selected OASDI Short-Range Demographic Assumptions
(Calendar years 1975-2014)
Calendar year
Total
fertility rate  1
Age-sex-adjusted
death rate  2
(per 100,000)
Period life expectancy  3
Net immigration
At birth
At age 65
Legal 4
Other 5
Male
Female
Male
Female
1975
1.77
1,099.0
68.7
76.6
13.7
18.0
294,303
...
1976
1.74
1,088.8
69.1
76.8
13.8
18.1
313,919
...
1977
1.80
1,057.5
69.4
77.2
13.9
18.3
372,824
...
1978
1.76
1,052.1
69.6
77.3
14.0
18.3
424,628
...
1979
1.82
1,017.3
70.0
77.7
14.2
18.6
358,437
...
1980
1.82
1,035.9
69.9
77.5
14.0
18.4
410,348
...
1981
1.80
1,007.2
70.4
77.9
14.2
18.6
446,989
...
1982
1.81
975.8
70.8
78.2
14.5
18.8
439,152
...
1983
1.78
987.7
70.9
78.1
14.3
18.6
416,848
...
1984
1.79
980.1
71.1
78.2
14.4
18.7
412,825
...
1985
1.84
984.2
71.1
78.2
14.4
18.6
433,449
...
1986
1.83
975.3
71.1
78.3
14.5
18.7
451,247
...
1987
1.86
965.6
71.3
78.4
14.6
18.7
458,922
...
1988
1.92
974.9
71.3
78.4
14.6
18.7
476,472
...
1989
2.00
948.8
71.6
78.6
14.9
18.9
467,334
...
1990
2.07
931.2
71.8
78.9
15.1
19.1
501,065
...
1991
2.06
918.8
72.0
79.0
15.2
19.2
548,000
...
1992
2.04
906.2
72.3
79.2
15.3
19.3
620,986
...
1993
2.02
928.0
72.1
79.0
15.2
19.0
644,696
...
1994
2.00
916.2
72.3
79.1
15.3
19.1
583,390
...
1995
1.98
913.9
72.5
79.1
15.4
19.1
573,719
...
1996
1.98
900.4
73.0
79.2
15.5
19.1
662,284
...
1997
1.97
885.1
73.4
79.4
15.6
19.1
571,800
...
1998
2.00
878.3
73.7
79.4
15.7
19.1
489,360
...
1999
2.01
884.3
73.8
79.3
15.7
19.0
523,037
...
2000
2.06
875.6
74.0
79.4
15.9
19.0
677,579
550,000
2001
2.03
867.1
74.1
79.5
16.1
19.1
798,126
550,000
2002 6
2.02
866.2
74.4
79.5
16.0
19.0
730,689
550,000
2003 6
2.03
861.9
74.5
79.5
16.1
19.0
529,370
400,000
2004 6
2.02
857.9
74.6
79.6
16.2
19.0
600,000
400,000
2005
2.02
854.2
74.8
79.6
16.2
19.0
675,000
400,000
2006
2.02
849.8
74.9
79.7
16.3
19.0
675,000
400,000
2007
2.01
845.0
75.0
79.7
16.4
19.1
600,000
400,000
2008
2.01
839.7
75.2
79.8
16.4
19.1
600,000
400,000
2009
2.01
834.1
75.3
79.9
16.5
19.1
600,000
400,000
2010
2.01
828.2
75.4
80.0
16.6
19.2
600,000
400,000
2011
2.00
822.1
75.5
80.0
16.6
19.2
600,000
400,000
2012
2.00
815.9
75.6
80.1
16.7
19.3
600,000
400,000
2013
2.00
809.5
75.7
80.2
16.7
19.3
600,000
400,000
2014
1.99
803.1
75.9
80.3
16.8
19.4
600,000
400,000

1The total fertility rate for any year is the average number of children who would be born to a woman in her lifetime if she were to experience the birth rates by age observed in, or assumed for, the selected year, and if she were to survive the entire childbearing period. The ultimate total fertility rate is assumed to be reached in 2029.

2The age-sex-adjusted death rate is the crude rate that would occur in the enumerated total population as of April 1, 2000, if that population were to experience the death rates by age and sex observed in, or assumed for, the selected year.

3The period life expectancy at a given age for a given year represents the average number of years of life remaining if a group of persons at that age were to experience the mortality rates for that year over the course of their remaining lives.

4Historical estimates of net legal immigration assume a 25 percent reduction in legal immigration due to legal emigration. Estimates do not include persons legalized under the Immigration Reform and Control Act of 1986.

5Net other immigration is estimated to have been between 225,000 and 550,000 persons per year over the period 1980-99.

6Preliminary or estimated.

Source: Estimates prepared by the Office of the Chief Actuary, Demographic Analysis Group.

Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A6 and V.B6 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.

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