Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA1
|
Total
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
0.1
|
0.7
|
1.4
|
1.9
|
2.6
|
4.0
|
7.4
|
14.7
|
27.4
|
40.9
|
4.1
|
105.1
|
1985
|
2/
|
.5
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
3.2
|
4.4
|
6.9
|
12.4
|
24.0
|
39.9
|
4.8
|
99.6
|
1990
|
.5
|
2.3
|
4.6
|
6.2
|
7.1
|
8.4
|
12.2
|
21.0
|
35.1
|
4.4
|
101.8
|
|
1995
|
.4
|
2.3
|
6.9
|
10.1
|
11.7
|
13.2
|
16.0
|
22.4
|
33.3
|
4.4
|
120.7
|
|
1996
|
.4
|
1.8
|
5.2
|
8.3
|
10.3
|
12.9
|
15.7
|
22.2
|
33.7
|
4.2
|
114.7
|
|
1997
|
.3
|
1.3
|
3.2
|
5.7
|
8.3
|
11.3
|
15.5
|
22.5
|
32.3
|
4.3
|
104.6
|
|
1998
|
.4
|
1.1
|
2.6
|
5.1
|
8.1
|
11.6
|
15.9
|
23.5
|
33.1
|
4.0
|
105.4
|
|
1999
|
.3
|
1.0
|
2.4
|
4.9
|
8.1
|
12.0
|
16.9
|
24.2
|
33.3
|
4.2
|
107.3
|
|
2000
|
.3
|
.9
|
2.2
|
4.7
|
8.2
|
12.4
|
17.9
|
24.6
|
32.9
|
4.1
|
108.2
|
|
2001
|
.3
|
.8
|
2.0
|
4.3
|
7.7
|
12.1
|
17.5
|
24.1
|
31.9
|
3.8
|
104.5
|
|
2002
|
.4
|
.9
|
2.1
|
4.3
|
8.3
|
13.4
|
19.1
|
26.4
|
35.1
|
3.8
|
113.8
|
|
2003
|
.4
|
.9
|
1.8
|
4.0
|
8.0
|
13.5
|
19.3
|
27.0
|
35.9
|
4.9
|
115.8
|
|
2004
|
.4
|
.9
|
1.7
|
3.7
|
8.0
|
13.4
|
20.1
|
28.2
|
36.9
|
6.0
|
119.3
|
|
2005
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
3.5
|
7.7
|
13.3
|
20.3
|
29.3
|
37.3
|
11.0
|
125.5
|
|
2006
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
3.5
|
7.4
|
13.3
|
20.7
|
29.9
|
38.7
|
13.2
|
129.7
|
|
2007
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
3.4
|
7.0
|
13.1
|
21.0
|
29.8
|
40.2
|
16.0
|
133.5
|
|
2008
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.7
|
3.3
|
6.7
|
12.8
|
21.1
|
29.9
|
41.5
|
18.4
|
136.8
|
|
2009
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.8
|
3.2
|
6.4
|
12.5
|
21.1
|
30.2
|
43.1
|
20.2
|
139.8
|
|
2010
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.8
|
3.1
|
6.2
|
12.1
|
21.1
|
30.6
|
44.7
|
20.1
|
141.1
|
|
2011
|
.4
|
1.0
|
1.9
|
3.0
|
6.1
|
11.6
|
20.9
|
31.0
|
45.3
|
21.7
|
142.7
|
|
2012
|
.4
|
.9
|
1.9
|
2.9
|
5.9
|
11.1
|
20.6
|
31.4
|
45.3
|
23.7
|
144.0
|
|
2013
|
.4
|
.9
|
1.8
|
2.9
|
5.7
|
10.5
|
20.3
|
31.6
|
45.6
|
24.1
|
143.8
|
|
2014
|
.3
|
.9
|
1.8
|
3.0
|
5.5
|
10.1
|
19.8
|
31.7
|
46.1
|
24.1
|
143.2
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
.3
|
.6
|
.9
|
1.1
|
1.7
|
3.0
|
5.6
|
9.7
|
13.2
|
1.6
|
37.7
|
|
1985
|
.2
|
.5
|
.9
|
1.5
|
1.9
|
2.9
|
4.8
|
9.0
|
13.9
|
1.6
|
37.1
|
|
1990
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.2
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
3.9
|
5.5
|
8.6
|
13.3
|
1.5
|
39.6
|
|
1995
|
.2
|
.8
|
1.8
|
3.0
|
4.3
|
6.0
|
7.9
|
10.9
|
14.5
|
1.7
|
51.2
|
|
1996
|
.2
|
.8
|
1.7
|
2.9
|
4.3
|
6.3
|
8.4
|
11.3
|
14.9
|
1.7
|
52.5
|
|
1997
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.7
|
4.3
|
6.2
|
8.9
|
12.0
|
15.2
|
1.7
|
53.3
|
|
1998
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
4.4
|
6.5
|
9.4
|
12.7
|
15.9
|
1.7
|
55.4
|
|
1999
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
4.5
|
6.9
|
10.1
|
13.4
|
16.6
|
1.9
|
58.2
|
|
2000
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
4.8
|
7.2
|
10.8
|
14.1
|
17.3
|
1.9
|
60.8
|
|
2001
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.2
|
2.5
|
4.7
|
7.3
|
10.7
|
14.4
|
17.1
|
1.8
|
60.5
|
|
2002
|
.2
|
.6
|
1.3
|
2.7
|
5.2
|
8.2
|
11.8
|
15.9
|
19.0
|
2.0
|
66.8
|
|
2003
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
5.1
|
8.2
|
11.8
|
16.5
|
20.4
|
2.7
|
69.4
|
|
2004
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.2
|
2.4
|
5.2
|
8.4
|
12.3
|
17.3
|
21.1
|
3.1
|
72.0
|
|
2005
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.2
|
2.4
|
5.2
|
8.5
|
12.7
|
18.2
|
21.7
|
5.9
|
76.7
|
|
2006
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.2
|
2.4
|
5.1
|
8.6
|
13.1
|
18.8
|
22.9
|
7.2
|
80.4
|
|
2007
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.3
|
2.4
|
4.9
|
8.6
|
13.4
|
19.1
|
24.1
|
8.9
|
83.8
|
|
2008
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.3
|
2.4
|
4.8
|
8.6
|
13.7
|
19.5
|
25.2
|
10.4
|
86.9
|
|
2009
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.3
|
2.3
|
4.7
|
8.6
|
13.8
|
20.0
|
26.4
|
11.6
|
89.8
|
|
2010
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
4.6
|
8.4
|
14.0
|
20.5
|
27.8
|
11.6
|
91.7
|
|
2011
|
.3
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
4.6
|
8.2
|
14.0
|
21.0
|
28.5
|
12.7
|
93.7
|
|
2012
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
4.6
|
7.9
|
14.0
|
21.4
|
28.9
|
14.0
|
95.5
|
|
2013
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
4.5
|
7.7
|
13.9
|
21.7
|
29.5
|
14.4
|
96.4
|
|
2014
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
4.4
|
7.4
|
13.8
|
21.9
|
30.2
|
14.6
|
97.0
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
.1
|
1.0
|
1.9
|
2.8
|
3.7
|
5.7
|
10.4
|
20.3
|
37.1
|
54.1
|
5.7
|
142.8
|
1985
|
.7
|
1.8
|
3.2
|
4.6
|
6.3
|
9.8
|
17.2
|
33.0
|
53.8
|
6.3
|
136.7
|
|
1990
|
.7
|
2.9
|
5.8
|
8.1
|
9.9
|
12.3
|
17.7
|
29.7
|
48.5
|
5.9
|
141.4
|
|
1995
|
.7
|
3.0
|
8.6
|
13.1
|
15.9
|
19.2
|
23.9
|
33.4
|
47.9
|
6.1
|
171.9
|
|
1996
|
.6
|
2.5
|
6.9
|
11.1
|
14.7
|
19.2
|
24.1
|
33.6
|
48.6
|
5.8
|
167.1
|
|
1997
|
.5
|
1.9
|
4.6
|
8.4
|
12.6
|
17.4
|
24.4
|
34.4
|
47.5
|
6.0
|
158.0
|
|
1998
|
.5
|
1.6
|
4.0
|
7.8
|
12.5
|
18.1
|
25.3
|
36.2
|
49.1
|
5.7
|
160.8
|
|
1999
|
.5
|
1.6
|
3.7
|
7.5
|
12.6
|
18.9
|
27.0
|
37.7
|
49.9
|
6.0
|
165.4
|
|
2000
|
.5
|
1.5
|
3.4
|
7.3
|
13.1
|
19.6
|
28.7
|
38.7
|
50.2
|
6.0
|
169.0
|
|
2001
|
.6
|
1.4
|
3.2
|
6.8
|
12.4
|
19.4
|
28.2
|
38.5
|
49.1
|
5.6
|
165.0
|
|
2002
|
.6
|
1.5
|
3.4
|
7.0
|
13.5
|
21.6
|
30.8
|
42.3
|
54.1
|
5.8
|
180.6
|
|
2003
|
.7
|
1.5
|
3.1
|
6.6
|
13.1
|
21.7
|
31.1
|
43.5
|
56.2
|
7.6
|
185.2
|
|
2004
|
.7
|
1.6
|
3.0
|
6.0
|
13.2
|
21.8
|
32.5
|
45.6
|
58.0
|
9.0
|
191.3
|
|
2005
|
.7
|
1.7
|
2.9
|
5.9
|
12.8
|
21.8
|
33.0
|
47.5
|
59.0
|
16.9
|
202.2
|
|
2006
|
.6
|
1.8
|
2.9
|
5.8
|
12.4
|
21.9
|
33.8
|
48.7
|
61.6
|
20.4
|
210.0
|
|
2007
|
.6
|
1.8
|
2.9
|
5.8
|
12.0
|
21.7
|
34.4
|
48.9
|
64.4
|
24.8
|
217.3
|
|
2008
|
.6
|
1.8
|
3.0
|
5.7
|
11.5
|
21.5
|
34.8
|
49.4
|
66.7
|
28.8
|
223.7
|
|
2009
|
.6
|
1.8
|
3.1
|
5.5
|
11.1
|
21.1
|
35.0
|
50.2
|
69.5
|
31.8
|
229.7
|
|
2010
|
.6
|
1.7
|
3.2
|
5.4
|
10.8
|
20.5
|
35.1
|
51.1
|
72.4
|
31.7
|
232.7
|
|
2011
|
.6
|
1.7
|
3.3
|
5.2
|
10.7
|
19.8
|
35.0
|
52.0
|
73.7
|
34.5
|
236.4
|
|
2012
|
.6
|
1.6
|
3.3
|
5.2
|
10.5
|
19.0
|
34.6
|
52.8
|
74.2
|
37.7
|
239.5
|
|
2013
|
.6
|
1.6
|
3.2
|
5.2
|
10.2
|
18.2
|
34.2
|
53.4
|
75.1
|
38.5
|
240.2
|
|
2014
|
.6
|
1.5
|
3.2
|
5.3
|
9.9
|
17.5
|
33.6
|
53.6
|
76.4
|
38.7
|
240.2
|
1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement ageNRA." 2Fewer than 50. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.