Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA1
|
Total
|
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Male
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
2/
|
1.0
|
3.5
|
5.3
|
6.9
|
8.2
|
10.1
|
11.0
|
11.1
|
4.1
|
0.1
|
61.3
|
|
1985
|
.5
|
1.9
|
2.2
|
1.9
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.8
|
2.2
|
.1
|
15.4
|
|
|
1990
|
.4
|
2.0
|
3.0
|
3.1
|
2.7
|
2.4
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
3.0
|
.1
|
20.8
|
|
|
1995
|
.8
|
2.9
|
4.8
|
5.6
|
5.2
|
4.0
|
2.9
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
.1
|
30.9
|
|
|
1996
|
.7
|
3.0
|
5.0
|
6.2
|
5.6
|
4.5
|
3.1
|
2.1
|
2.3
|
.1
|
32.6
|
|
|
1997
|
.9
|
4.5
|
8.8
|
13.8
|
16.1
|
14.4
|
9.1
|
5.0
|
3.7
|
.4
|
76.6
|
|
|
1998
|
.6
|
2.8
|
4.2
|
5.6
|
5.6
|
4.6
|
3.0
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
.1
|
30.2
|
|
|
1999
|
.6
|
2.8
|
4.6
|
5.9
|
6.3
|
5.5
|
3.9
|
2.8
|
2.4
|
.2
|
34.9
|
|
|
2000
|
.6
|
3.0
|
5.5
|
7.6
|
7.9
|
6.7
|
4.9
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
.2
|
41.8
|
|
|
2001
|
.5
|
2.3
|
4.5
|
6.0
|
7.0
|
6.6
|
5.1
|
4.0
|
3.7
|
.1
|
39.9
|
|
|
2002
|
.5
|
2.4
|
4.5
|
5.9
|
6.9
|
6.4
|
4.7
|
3.3
|
2.3
|
.1
|
36.9
|
|
|
2003
|
.5
|
2.1
|
3.7
|
5.0
|
6.1
|
5.8
|
4.1
|
3.1
|
2.4
|
.2
|
33.1
|
|
|
2004
|
.6
|
2.3
|
3.6
|
4.9
|
6.2
|
6.2
|
4.8
|
3.3
|
2.2
|
.2
|
34.2
|
|
|
2005
|
.6
|
2.5
|
3.6
|
4.9
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
5.0
|
3.5
|
2.3
|
.3
|
35.3
|
|
|
2006
|
.7
|
2.8
|
3.8
|
5.1
|
6.3
|
6.7
|
5.4
|
3.8
|
2.6
|
.4
|
37.6
|
|
|
2007
|
.7
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
5.3
|
6.3
|
7.0
|
5.8
|
4.0
|
2.9
|
.6
|
39.8
|
|
|
2008
|
.7
|
3.3
|
4.4
|
5.5
|
6.4
|
7.3
|
6.2
|
4.3
|
3.2
|
.7
|
42.0
|
|
|
2009
|
.7
|
3.4
|
4.9
|
5.6
|
6.6
|
7.6
|
6.6
|
4.6
|
3.5
|
.8
|
44.3
|
|
|
2010
|
.7
|
3.4
|
5.1
|
5.5
|
6.5
|
7.4
|
6.7
|
4.8
|
3.6
|
.8
|
44.6
|
|
|
2011
|
.8
|
3.4
|
5.5
|
5.7
|
6.7
|
7.5
|
7.0
|
5.1
|
3.9
|
.9
|
46.5
|
|
|
2012
|
.8
|
3.5
|
5.8
|
6.0
|
6.9
|
7.6
|
7.3
|
5.5
|
4.1
|
1.1
|
48.4
|
|
|
2013
|
.8
|
3.4
|
5.8
|
6.1
|
6.8
|
7.4
|
7.3
|
5.6
|
4.2
|
1.1
|
48.4
|
|
|
2014
|
.8
|
3.4
|
5.7
|
6.3
|
6.6
|
7.2
|
7.2
|
5.7
|
4.3
|
1.1
|
48.4
|
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
.3
|
1.1
|
1.8
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
4.4
|
4.2
|
4.7
|
1.6
|
23.8
|
||
|
1985
|
.2
|
.9
|
1.1
|
1.0
|
.9
|
.9
|
.9
|
.9
|
1.1
|
8.0
|
||
|
1990
|
.2
|
.9
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
1.3
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
1.2
|
9.6
|
||
|
1995
|
.4
|
1.5
|
2.3
|
2.6
|
2.9
|
2.5
|
1.9
|
1.2
|
1.0
|
16.3
|
||
|
1996
|
.4
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
3.2
|
2.9
|
2.1
|
1.3
|
1.0
|
18.0
|
||
|
1997
|
.5
|
2.0
|
3.7
|
5.4
|
5.8
|
5.2
|
3.5
|
1.9
|
1.3
|
.1
|
29.4
|
|
|
1998
|
.4
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
3.4
|
4.1
|
3.8
|
2.8
|
1.6
|
1.1
|
.1
|
21.4
|
|
|
1999
|
.4
|
1.6
|
2.4
|
3.6
|
4.1
|
4.2
|
3.2
|
2.0
|
1.4
|
.1
|
22.9
|
|
|
2000
|
.3
|
1.7
|
3.1
|
4.3
|
5.1
|
5.0
|
4.0
|
2.5
|
1.5
|
.1
|
27.7
|
|
|
2001
|
.3
|
1.3
|
2.6
|
3.7
|
4.7
|
4.8
|
3.9
|
3.1
|
2.2
|
.1
|
26.8
|
|
|
2002
|
.3
|
1.5
|
2.7
|
3.9
|
4.9
|
5.1
|
3.9
|
2.8
|
1.8
|
.1
|
27.1
|
|
|
2003
|
.3
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
4.4
|
4.6
|
3.7
|
2.8
|
1.8
|
.1
|
25.0
|
|
|
2004
|
.4
|
1.5
|
2.5
|
3.3
|
4.6
|
5.0
|
4.2
|
3.1
|
1.8
|
.1
|
26.3
|
|
|
2005
|
.4
|
1.6
|
2.6
|
3.4
|
4.7
|
5.2
|
4.4
|
3.3
|
1.9
|
.3
|
27.7
|
|
|
2006
|
.4
|
1.8
|
2.8
|
3.7
|
4.9
|
5.7
|
4.9
|
3.6
|
2.1
|
.3
|
30.1
|
|
|
2007
|
.4
|
2.0
|
3.0
|
3.9
|
5.1
|
6.0
|
5.3
|
3.9
|
2.4
|
.4
|
32.4
|
|
|
2008
|
.4
|
2.1
|
3.3
|
4.1
|
5.2
|
6.4
|
5.7
|
4.3
|
2.6
|
.5
|
34.7
|
|
|
2009
|
.5
|
2.2
|
3.6
|
4.3
|
5.4
|
6.8
|
6.2
|
4.7
|
2.9
|
.6
|
37.1
|
|
|
2010
|
.5
|
2.2
|
3.8
|
4.3
|
5.5
|
6.7
|
6.3
|
4.9
|
3.1
|
.6
|
37.9
|
|
|
2011
|
.5
|
2.2
|
4.1
|
4.5
|
5.8
|
6.9
|
6.7
|
5.3
|
3.3
|
.8
|
40.0
|
|
|
2012
|
.5
|
2.3
|
4.3
|
4.7
|
6.1
|
7.1
|
7.1
|
5.7
|
3.6
|
.9
|
42.2
|
|
|
2013
|
.5
|
2.3
|
4.3
|
4.9
|
6.1
|
7.0
|
7.1
|
5.8
|
3.7
|
.9
|
42.6
|
|
|
2014
|
.5
|
2.3
|
4.3
|
5.0
|
6.0
|
6.9
|
7.2
|
6.0
|
3.9
|
.9
|
43.1
|
|
|
Total
|
||||||||||||
|
1980
|
1.3
|
4.6
|
7.1
|
9.4
|
11.4
|
14.5
|
15.2
|
15.8
|
5.7
|
.2
|
85.1
|
|
|
1985
|
.8
|
2.8
|
3.3
|
2.8
|
2.6
|
2.4
|
2.5
|
2.8
|
3.3
|
.2
|
23.5
|
|
|
1990
|
.6
|
2.9
|
4.2
|
4.4
|
4.1
|
3.6
|
3.1
|
3.1
|
4.1
|
.2
|
30.4
|
|
|
1995
|
1.2
|
4.3
|
7.1
|
8.2
|
8.1
|
6.5
|
4.8
|
3.4
|
3.4
|
.1
|
47.3
|
|
|
1996
|
1.1
|
4.5
|
7.5
|
9.2
|
8.8
|
7.4
|
5.2
|
3.3
|
3.3
|
.1
|
50.6
|
|
|
1997
|
1.3
|
6.5
|
12.5
|
19.2
|
21.9
|
19.6
|
12.6
|
6.9
|
4.9
|
.5
|
106.0
|
|
|
1998
|
1.0
|
4.3
|
6.8
|
9.0
|
9.7
|
8.5
|
5.8
|
3.3
|
3.0
|
.2
|
51.5
|
|
|
1999
|
.9
|
4.3
|
6.9
|
9.5
|
10.5
|
9.7
|
7.1
|
4.8
|
3.8
|
.3
|
57.8
|
|
|
2000
|
.9
|
4.6
|
8.6
|
11.9
|
13.0
|
11.8
|
8.9
|
5.5
|
4.1
|
.3
|
69.5
|
|
|
2001
|
.8
|
3.6
|
7.1
|
9.7
|
11.8
|
11.4
|
9.1
|
7.1
|
6.0
|
.2
|
66.8
|
|
|
2002
|
.9
|
3.9
|
7.2
|
9.8
|
11.8
|
11.5
|
8.6
|
6.1
|
4.1
|
.2
|
64.1
|
|
|
2003
|
.8
|
3.6
|
6.2
|
8.3
|
10.5
|
10.4
|
7.8
|
5.9
|
4.1
|
.3
|
58.0
|
|
|
2004
|
1.0
|
3.8
|
6.0
|
8.2
|
10.8
|
11.1
|
8.9
|
6.4
|
4.0
|
.3
|
60.5
|
|
|
2005
|
1.0
|
4.1
|
6.1
|
8.3
|
10.8
|
11.6
|
9.4
|
6.8
|
4.2
|
.6
|
62.9
|
|
|
2006
|
1.0
|
4.6
|
6.6
|
8.8
|
11.1
|
12.4
|
10.3
|
7.4
|
4.6
|
.8
|
67.7
|
|
|
2007
|
1.1
|
5.0
|
7.1
|
9.2
|
11.4
|
13.1
|
11.1
|
8.0
|
5.2
|
1.0
|
72.2
|
|
|
2008
|
1.1
|
5.3
|
7.7
|
9.6
|
11.7
|
13.7
|
12.0
|
8.6
|
5.8
|
1.2
|
76.7
|
|
|
2009
|
1.2
|
5.6
|
8.5
|
9.9
|
12.0
|
14.3
|
12.8
|
9.3
|
6.4
|
1.4
|
81.4
|
|
|
2010
|
1.2
|
5.6
|
8.9
|
9.8
|
12.0
|
14.2
|
13.0
|
9.6
|
6.7
|
1.5
|
82.5
|
|
|
2011
|
1.3
|
5.7
|
9.6
|
10.2
|
12.5
|
14.4
|
13.7
|
10.4
|
7.2
|
1.7
|
86.6
|
|
|
2012
|
1.3
|
5.8
|
10.1
|
10.7
|
12.9
|
14.6
|
14.4
|
11.1
|
7.7
|
2.0
|
90.6
|
|
|
2013
|
1.3
|
5.7
|
10.1
|
10.9
|
12.8
|
14.3
|
14.4
|
11.4
|
7.9
|
2.0
|
91.1
|
|
|
2014
|
1.3
|
5.7
|
10.0
|
11.3
|
12.6
|
14.1
|
14.4
|
11.7
|
8.2
|
2.1
|
91.5
|
|
| 1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement age—NRA." 2Fewer than 50. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.