Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
|||||
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
Year
|
15-19
|
20-24
|
25-29
|
30-34
|
35-39
|
40-44
|
45-49
|
50-54
|
55-59
|
60-64
|
65-NRA1
|
Total
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Male
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
2/
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.1
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.2
|
0.3
|
0.6
|
0.6
|
2.4
|
1985
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
.9
|
.6
|
2.5
|
||
1990
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
1.5
|
.2
|
3.4
|
||
1995
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
1.7
|
1.5
|
4.6
|
|
1996
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
1.7
|
1.3
|
4.3
|
||
1997
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
1.7
|
1.4
|
3.9
|
||
1998
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
1.6
|
1.5
|
3.9
|
||
1999
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.4
|
.4
|
.3
|
1.8
|
1.6
|
5.4
|
|
2000
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.6
|
.4
|
2.0
|
2.1
|
7.0
|
||
2001
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.6
|
.6
|
.7
|
.6
|
2.0
|
1.7
|
6.9
|
||
2002
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.5
|
.5
|
.6
|
.5
|
2.0
|
1.9
|
6.8
|
|
2003
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.5
|
.4
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
6.1
|
|
2004
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.5
|
.5
|
1.8
|
1.8
|
6.2
|
|
2005
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.4
|
.6
|
.7
|
.7
|
.8
|
2.2
|
2.4
|
8.3
|
|
2006
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.6
|
.8
|
.9
|
1.0
|
2.5
|
3.0
|
9.7
|
|
2007
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.6
|
.9
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
2.6
|
3.6
|
10.8
|
|
2008
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.6
|
.9
|
1.3
|
1.6
|
2.0
|
3.8
|
4.2
|
15.3
|
|
2009
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.8
|
1.2
|
1.5
|
1.8
|
3.7
|
4.7
|
15.0
|
|
2010
|
.1
|
.4
|
.6
|
.8
|
1.2
|
1.9
|
2.5
|
3.1
|
5.5
|
4.8
|
21.1
|
|
2011
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.5
|
.7
|
.8
|
1.0
|
2.9
|
5.3
|
12.1
|
|
2012
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.5
|
.7
|
.8
|
1.0
|
3.0
|
5.8
|
12.7
|
|
2013
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.8
|
1.0
|
3.0
|
6.0
|
12.9
|
|
2014
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.8
|
1.0
|
3.1
|
6.2
|
13.1
|
|
Female
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.8
|
|||||||
1985
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.3
|
.2
|
.9
|
||||||
1990
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.5
|
.2
|
1.5
|
||
1995
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.7
|
.7
|
2.0
|
||
1996
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.7
|
.6
|
2.0
|
||
1997
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.7
|
||||
1998
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.7
|
.8
|
2.0
|
||||
1999
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.2
|
.2
|
.1
|
.7
|
.8
|
2.7
|
||
2000
|
.1
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.4
|
.3
|
.1
|
.6
|
.9
|
3.2
|
||
2001
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.4
|
.2
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.0
|
3.4
|
||
2002
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.2
|
.2
|
.8
|
1.1
|
3.5
|
||
2003
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.7
|
1.0
|
3.1
|
||
2004
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.2
|
.2
|
.7
|
.9
|
3.1
|
||
2005
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.5
|
.5
|
1.1
|
1.1
|
4.8
|
||
2006
|
.2
|
.2
|
.4
|
.4
|
.6
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.3
|
1.4
|
5.8
|
||
2007
|
.2
|
.2
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.7
|
.8
|
1.4
|
1.8
|
6.6
|
||
2008
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.1
|
1.3
|
1.5
|
2.3
|
2.1
|
10.3
|
|
2009
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.5
|
.7
|
1.0
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
2.3
|
2.4
|
9.9
|
|
2010
|
.1
|
.3
|
.6
|
.8
|
1.1
|
1.6
|
2.1
|
2.6
|
3.8
|
2.4
|
15.4
|
|
2011
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.6
|
1.5
|
2.7
|
7.1
|
||
2012
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.6
|
3.0
|
7.5
|
||
2013
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.6
|
3.2
|
7.8
|
||
2014
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.4
|
.5
|
.6
|
.7
|
1.7
|
3.3
|
8.0
|
||
Total
|
||||||||||||
1980
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.8
|
.8
|
3.2
|
|
1985
|
.1
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.4
|
1.2
|
.7
|
3.4
|
|
1990
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.4
|
.4
|
.4
|
.4
|
2.0
|
.3
|
4.9
|
|
1995
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
6.6
|
|
1996
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
.3
|
2.3
|
1.9
|
6.3
|
|
1997
|
.1
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
2.4
|
2.1
|
5.6
|
||
1998
|
.1
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.2
|
.3
|
2.3
|
2.3
|
6.0
|
||
1999
|
.1
|
.2
|
.3
|
.4
|
.6
|
.6
|
.6
|
.4
|
2.5
|
2.4
|
8.1
|
|
2000
|
.2
|
.3
|
.7
|
.9
|
.9
|
.8
|
.6
|
2.6
|
3.1
|
10.2
|
||
2001
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.0
|
.9
|
.7
|
2.7
|
2.7
|
10.3
|
|
2002
|
.1
|
.2
|
.4
|
.6
|
.8
|
.9
|
.8
|
.7
|
2.8
|
3.0
|
10.3
|
|
2003
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.7
|
.7
|
.7
|
.5
|
2.5
|
2.9
|
9.2
|
|
2004
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.5
|
.7
|
.8
|
.7
|
.6
|
2.6
|
2.7
|
9.3
|
|
2005
|
.1
|
.3
|
.4
|
.7
|
1.0
|
1.2
|
1.2
|
1.3
|
3.3
|
3.6
|
13.1
|
|
2006
|
.1
|
.4
|
.5
|
.8
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
3.7
|
4.4
|
15.5
|
|
2007
|
.1
|
.4
|
.5
|
.8
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
1.7
|
1.9
|
4.0
|
5.4
|
17.4
|
|
2008
|
.2
|
.6
|
.8
|
1.2
|
1.7
|
2.4
|
2.9
|
3.5
|
6.1
|
6.3
|
25.7
|
|
2009
|
.2
|
.5
|
.8
|
1.1
|
1.5
|
2.1
|
2.6
|
3.1
|
6.0
|
7.1
|
24.9
|
|
2010
|
.2
|
.8
|
1.2
|
1.6
|
2.3
|
3.5
|
4.6
|
5.7
|
9.4
|
7.2
|
36.5
|
|
2011
|
.1
|
.4
|
.5
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.6
|
4.5
|
8.0
|
19.2
|
|
2012
|
.1
|
.4
|
.6
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.2
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
4.5
|
8.9
|
20.2
|
|
2013
|
.1
|
.4
|
.6
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.7
|
4.7
|
9.2
|
20.7
|
|
2014
|
.1
|
.4
|
.5
|
.7
|
.9
|
1.1
|
1.4
|
1.8
|
4.8
|
9.4
|
21.1
|
1See Glossary for definition of "Normal retirement ageNRA." 2Fewer than 50. |
Sources:
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.