Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
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 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Benefit
increase (percent) |
In force
beginning of period |
Awards
during period |
Terminations during period
|
In force
end of period |
Current-payment status
end of period |
||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Ratio to
average benefit in force beginning of period |
Average
benefit |
Number
|
Average
benefit |
Ratio to
average benefit in force end of period |
Average
benefit |
||
|
1980
|
14.3
|
180.1
|
$127.85
|
145.9
|
$140.44
|
145.1
|
0.9303
|
$135.95
|
181.0
|
$150.04
|
1.0159
|
$152.43
|
|
1981
|
11.2
|
181.0
|
150.04
|
138.1
|
154.45
|
141.9
|
.9207
|
153.61
|
177.2
|
167.78
|
1.0306
|
172.92
|
|
1982
|
7.4
|
177.2
|
167.78
|
104.4
|
164.48
|
175.9
|
1.0500
|
189.21
|
105.7
|
152.25
|
1.0211
|
155.46
|
|
1983
|
3.5
|
105.7
|
152.25
|
70.6
|
171.89
|
114.1
|
1.1230
|
176.96
|
62.2
|
138.28
|
1.0414
|
144.00
|
|
1984
|
3.5
|
62.2
|
138.28
|
61.9
|
181.73
|
83.2
|
1.2086
|
172.97
|
41.0
|
140.89
|
1.0632
|
149.80
|
|
1985
|
3.1
|
41.0
|
140.89
|
55.6
|
188.76
|
69.4
|
1.1370
|
165.15
|
27.2
|
186.90
|
1.0535
|
196.90
|
|
1986
|
1.3
|
27.2
|
186.90
|
52.5
|
193.11
|
53.5
|
1.0350
|
195.95
|
26.3
|
186.69
|
1.0812
|
201.84
|
|
1987
|
4.2
|
26.3
|
186.69
|
54.0
|
201.41
|
53.2
|
1.0509
|
204.44
|
27.0
|
195.94
|
1.0891
|
213.40
|
|
1988
|
4.0
|
27.0
|
195.94
|
61.4
|
213.17
|
56.3
|
1.0405
|
212.03
|
32.2
|
209.38
|
1.0888
|
227.98
|
|
1989
|
4.7
|
32.2
|
209.38
|
56.7
|
225.79
|
57.2
|
1.0326
|
226.37
|
31.7
|
220.53
|
1.0910
|
240.59
|
|
1990
|
5.4
|
31.7
|
220.53
|
58.4
|
231.50
|
58.3
|
1.0183
|
236.68
|
31.8
|
226.54
|
1.1036
|
250.00
|
|
1991
|
3.7
|
31.8
|
226.54
|
60.2
|
236.04
|
58.2
|
1.0170
|
238.92
|
33.8
|
231.37
|
1.0945
|
253.23
|
|
1992
|
3.0
|
33.8
|
231.37
|
65.9
|
237.42
|
62.7
|
1.0055
|
239.62
|
37.0
|
235.32
|
1.1132
|
261.96
|
|
1993
|
2.6
|
37.0
|
235.32
|
70.9
|
242.40
|
68.7
|
1.0132
|
244.61
|
39.1
|
238.91
|
1.1131
|
265.94
|
|
1994
|
2.8
|
39.1
|
238.91
|
74.1
|
248.34
|
72.6
|
1.0148
|
249.24
|
40.6
|
245.80
|
1.1138
|
273.77
|
|
1995
|
2.6
|
40.6
|
245.80
|
75.6
|
259.23
|
74.5
|
1.0283
|
259.32
|
41.7
|
254.10
|
1.1182
|
284.13
|
|
1996
|
2.9
|
41.7
|
254.10
|
76.5
|
270.49
|
74.3
|
1.0245
|
267.86
|
43.9
|
267.90
|
1.1010
|
294.96
|
|
1997
|
2.1
|
43.9
|
267.90
|
75.8
|
279.19
|
77.0
|
1.0183
|
278.52
|
42.8
|
275.89
|
1.1100
|
306.25
|
|
1998
|
1.3
|
42.8
|
275.89
|
82.4
|
285.92
|
80.1
|
1.0215
|
285.49
|
45.1
|
281.88
|
1.1106
|
313.06
|
|
1999
|
1 2.5
|
45.1
|
281.88
|
84.3
|
295.59
|
84.0
|
1.0218
|
295.22
|
45.4
|
291.14
|
1.0983
|
319.75
|
|
2000
|
3.5
|
45.4
|
291.14
|
81.4
|
312.60
|
81.2
|
1.0384
|
312.89
|
45.6
|
303.36
|
1.1076
|
336.01
|
|
2001
|
2.6
|
45.6
|
303.36
|
81.5
|
327.44
|
80.3
|
1.0749
|
334.56
|
46.8
|
313.82
|
1.0945
|
343.48
|
|
2002
|
1.4
|
46.8
|
313.82
|
91.9
|
327.69
|
88.3
|
1.1048
|
351.57
|
50.4
|
320.32
|
1.0929
|
350.09
|
|
2003
|
2.1
|
50.4
|
320.32
|
96.4
|
338.06
|
93.2
|
1.1031
|
360.75
|
53.7
|
328.93
|
1.0918
|
359.14
|
|
2004
|
2.7
|
53.7
|
328.93
|
100.6
|
350.11
|
105.3
|
1.0609
|
358.38
|
48.9
|
353.23
|
1.0418
|
367.98
|
|
2005-I
|
...
|
48.9
|
353.23
|
30.2
|
349.46
|
8.3
|
1.1270
|
398.09
|
70.7
|
346.35
|
1.0775
|
373.19
|
|
2005-II
|
...
|
70.7
|
346.35
|
24.1
|
349.33
|
43.5
|
1.0210
|
353.62
|
51.4
|
341.59
|
1.0912
|
372.74
|
|
2005-III
|
...
|
51.4
|
341.59
|
20.1
|
349.21
|
41.5
|
1.0530
|
359.69
|
30.0
|
321.68
|
1.1220
|
360.92
|
|
2005-IV
|
2.0
|
30.0
|
321.68
|
26.1
|
356.07
|
6.5
|
1.1520
|
378.00
|
49.7
|
336.33
|
1.0970
|
368.96
|
|
2006-I
|
...
|
49.7
|
336.33
|
30.9
|
356.72
|
8.5
|
1.1270
|
379.05
|
72.1
|
340.06
|
1.0775
|
366.41
|
|
2006-II
|
...
|
72.1
|
340.06
|
24.7
|
357.38
|
44.4
|
1.0210
|
347.20
|
52.5
|
342.19
|
1.0912
|
373.39
|
|
2006-III
|
...
|
52.5
|
342.19
|
20.6
|
358.04
|
42.4
|
1.0530
|
360.32
|
30.7
|
327.80
|
1.1220
|
367.79
|
|
2006-IV
|
2.2
|
30.7
|
327.80
|
26.8
|
366.59
|
6.6
|
1.1520
|
385.95
|
50.9
|
345.02
|
1.0970
|
378.49
|
|
2007-I
|
...
|
50.9
|
345.02
|
31.9
|
367.62
|
8.7
|
1.1270
|
388.84
|
74.1
|
349.61
|
1.0775
|
376.71
|
|
2007-II
|
...
|
74.1
|
349.61
|
25.5
|
368.64
|
45.6
|
1.0210
|
356.95
|
54.0
|
352.40
|
1.0912
|
384.54
|
|
2007-III
|
...
|
54.0
|
352.40
|
21.3
|
369.67
|
43.6
|
1.0530
|
371.08
|
31.6
|
338.23
|
1.1220
|
379.50
|
|
2007-IV
|
2.7
|
31.6
|
338.23
|
27.6
|
380.70
|
6.8
|
1.1520
|
400.18
|
52.5
|
358.07
|
1.0970
|
392.80
|
|
2008-I
|
...
|
52.5
|
358.07
|
33.7
|
382.14
|
9.0
|
1.1270
|
403.54
|
77.2
|
363.28
|
1.0775
|
391.43
|
|
2008-II
|
...
|
77.2
|
363.28
|
27.0
|
383.58
|
47.6
|
1.0210
|
370.91
|
56.6
|
366.53
|
1.0912
|
399.96
|
|
2008-III
|
...
|
56.6
|
366.53
|
22.5
|
385.02
|
45.8
|
1.0530
|
385.96
|
33.3
|
352.31
|
1.1220
|
395.29
|
|
2008-IV
|
2.8
|
33.3
|
352.31
|
29.2
|
397.28
|
7.2
|
1.1520
|
417.24
|
55.3
|
373.58
|
1.0970
|
409.82
|
|
2009-I
|
...
|
55.3
|
373.58
|
36.1
|
398.57
|
9.5
|
1.1270
|
421.02
|
81.9
|
379.07
|
1.0775
|
408.44
|
|
2009-II
|
...
|
81.9
|
379.07
|
28.9
|
399.87
|
50.6
|
1.0210
|
387.03
|
60.2
|
382.35
|
1.0912
|
417.22
|
|
2009-III
|
...
|
60.2
|
382.35
|
24.0
|
401.16
|
48.7
|
1.0530
|
402.61
|
35.5
|
367.28
|
1.1220
|
412.09
|
|
2009-IV
|
2.8
|
35.5
|
367.28
|
31.3
|
413.72
|
7.7
|
1.1520
|
434.97
|
59.1
|
389.26
|
1.0970
|
427.01
|
|
2010-I
|
...
|
59.1
|
389.26
|
36.3
|
415.77
|
10.0
|
1.1270
|
438.69
|
85.3
|
394.71
|
1.0775
|
425.30
|
|
2010-II
|
...
|
85.3
|
394.71
|
29.0
|
417.82
|
52.4
|
1.0210
|
403.00
|
61.9
|
398.52
|
1.0912
|
434.87
|
|
2010-III
|
...
|
61.9
|
398.52
|
24.2
|
419.87
|
50.0
|
1.0530
|
419.64
|
36.1
|
383.61
|
1.1220
|
430.41
|
|
2010-IV
|
2.8
|
36.1
|
383.61
|
31.4
|
433.73
|
7.8
|
1.1520
|
454.31
|
59.8
|
407.26
|
1.0970
|
446.76
|
|
2011-I
|
...
|
59.8
|
407.26
|
35.9
|
435.83
|
10.1
|
1.1270
|
458.98
|
85.6
|
413.15
|
1.0775
|
445.16
|
|
2011-II
|
...
|
85.6
|
413.15
|
28.8
|
437.93
|
52.5
|
1.0210
|
421.82
|
61.9
|
417.31
|
1.0912
|
455.36
|
|
2011-III
|
...
|
61.9
|
417.31
|
24.0
|
440.02
|
49.9
|
1.0530
|
439.42
|
36.0
|
401.79
|
1.1220
|
450.81
|
|
2011-IV
|
2.8
|
36.0
|
401.79
|
31.2
|
454.50
|
7.7
|
1.1520
|
475.84
|
59.4
|
426.62
|
1.0970
|
468.00
|
|
2012-I
|
...
|
59.4
|
426.62
|
36.6
|
456.09
|
10.1
|
1.1270
|
480.80
|
85.9
|
432.81
|
1.0775
|
466.35
|
|
2012-II
|
...
|
85.9
|
432.81
|
29.3
|
457.69
|
52.8
|
1.0210
|
441.89
|
62.4
|
436.79
|
1.0912
|
476.63
|
|
2012-III
|
...
|
62.4
|
436.79
|
24.4
|
459.28
|
50.4
|
1.0530
|
459.94
|
36.4
|
419.88
|
1.1220
|
471.10
|
|
2012-IV
|
2.8
|
36.4
|
419.88
|
31.7
|
473.78
|
7.8
|
1.1520
|
497.26
|
60.3
|
445.26
|
1.0970
|
488.45
|
|
2013-I
|
...
|
60.3
|
445.26
|
37.2
|
475.32
|
10.3
|
1.1270
|
501.81
|
87.2
|
451.43
|
1.0775
|
486.41
|
|
2013-II
|
...
|
87.2
|
451.43
|
29.8
|
476.86
|
53.6
|
1.0210
|
460.91
|
63.4
|
455.35
|
1.0912
|
496.88
|
|
2013-III
|
...
|
63.4
|
455.35
|
24.8
|
478.41
|
51.2
|
1.0530
|
479.48
|
37.0
|
437.45
|
1.1220
|
490.82
|
|
2013-IV
|
2.8
|
37.0
|
437.45
|
32.2
|
493.39
|
8.0
|
1.1520
|
518.07
|
61.3
|
463.79
|
1.0970
|
508.78
|
|
2014-I
|
...
|
61.3
|
463.79
|
37.8
|
494.92
|
10.4
|
1.1270
|
522.69
|
88.6
|
470.13
|
1.0775
|
506.56
|
|
2014-II
|
...
|
88.6
|
470.13
|
30.2
|
496.45
|
54.5
|
1.0210
|
480.00
|
64.4
|
474.14
|
1.0912
|
517.38
|
|
2014-III
|
...
|
64.4
|
474.14
|
25.2
|
497.97
|
52.0
|
1.0530
|
499.26
|
37.6
|
455.37
|
1.1220
|
510.92
|
|
2014-IV
|
2.8
|
37.6
|
455.37
|
32.7
|
513.49
|
8.1
|
1.1520
|
539.29
|
62.3
|
482.72
|
1.0970
|
529.55
|
| 1Benefit increase for 1999 was originally determined as 2.4 percent, but pursuant to Public Law 106-554 is effectively now 2.5 percent. |
Sources: See sources at end of table III.D5.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions.