Short-Range Actuarial Projections |
 |
 |
 |
 |
 |
ACTUARIAL STUDY NO. 119
by Chris Motsiopoulos and Richard B. Tucker | |||||
|
Calendar
period |
Total
|
Retired workers and auxiliaries
|
Survivors of deceased workers
|
Disabled workers and auxiliaries
|
Special
age-72 benefi-ciaries |
Lump-
sum death pay-ments |
||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Total
|
Retired
workers |
Dependents
|
Total
|
Children
|
Widowed
mothers and fathers |
Aged
widows and widowers and aged parents |
Disabled
widows and widowers |
Total
|
Disabled
workers |
Dependents
|
||||
|
1980
|
$120,511.9
|
$78,003.6
|
$70,484.7
|
$7,518.9
|
$26,557.3
|
$7,389.4
|
$1,572.2
|
$17,283.1
|
$312.5
|
$15,437.5
|
$12,816.5
|
$2,621.0
|
$119.2
|
$394.4
|
|
1981
|
140,994.8
|
92,570.5
|
83,739.2
|
8,831.3
|
30,782.3
|
8,307.2
|
1,760.1
|
20,375.3
|
339.7
|
17,199.4
|
14,378.8
|
2,820.6
|
110.1
|
332.5
|
|
1982
|
156,137.3
|
104,977.1
|
95,250.3
|
9,726.8
|
33,519.9
|
8,203.9
|
1,860.8
|
23,105.7
|
349.5
|
17,337.5
|
14,810.2
|
2,527.3
|
99.6
|
203.3
|
|
1983
|
167,032.6
|
114,128.4
|
103,697.0
|
10,431.4
|
35,083.8
|
7,911.2
|
1,771.1
|
25,056.9
|
344.6
|
17,530.2
|
15,195.7
|
2,334.5
|
84.7
|
205.4
|
|
1984
|
175,762.1
|
121,046.0
|
110,092.6
|
10,953.4
|
36,533.9
|
7,775.1
|
1,474.0
|
26,887.7
|
397.1
|
17,900.1
|
15,622.7
|
2,277.4
|
70.6
|
211.5
|
|
1985
|
186,195.4
|
128,476.6
|
116,819.6
|
11,657.0
|
38,618.6
|
7,761.8
|
1,473.6
|
28,962.9
|
420.3
|
18,835.9
|
16,482.6
|
2,353.3
|
56.9
|
207.5
|
|
1986
|
196,691.2
|
135,902.1
|
123,583.7
|
12,318.3
|
40,692.6
|
7,842.9
|
1,457.2
|
30,959.0
|
433.4
|
19,846.8
|
17,409.1
|
2,437.7
|
46.9
|
202.9
|
|
1987
|
204,155.6
|
141,293.5
|
128,513.1
|
12,780.4
|
42,111.9
|
7,846.1
|
1,387.8
|
32,443.9
|
434.1
|
20,511.5
|
18,053.4
|
2,458.1
|
35.7
|
203.1
|
|
1988
|
217,213.9
|
150,497.6
|
136,986.9
|
13,510.7
|
44,787.5
|
8,120.1
|
1,392.3
|
34,828.6
|
446.5
|
21,692.2
|
19,164.7
|
2,527.4
|
28.5
|
208.1
|
|
1989
|
230,850.3
|
160,330.7
|
146,026.9
|
14,303.8
|
47,418.5
|
8,253.9
|
1,400.8
|
37,304.9
|
459.0
|
22,873.4
|
20,314.5
|
2,558.9
|
21.3
|
206.5
|
|
1990
|
247,796.1
|
172,025.4
|
156,756.1
|
15,269.4
|
50,745.8
|
8,564.0
|
1,437.3
|
40,264.5
|
480.0
|
24,803.3
|
22,113.5
|
2,689.8
|
16.1
|
205.6
|
|
1991
|
268,097.9
|
185,533.3
|
169,142.1
|
16,391.2
|
54,688.8
|
9,021.7
|
1,489.7
|
43,607.9
|
569.6
|
27,661.7
|
24,737.7
|
2,924.0
|
12.1
|
202.0
|
|
1992
|
286,030.6
|
196,676.5
|
179,372.4
|
17,304.0
|
58,048.8
|
9,431.4
|
1,520.7
|
46,411.6
|
685.1
|
31,091.2
|
27,855.8
|
3,235.4
|
8.7
|
205.5
|
|
1993
|
302,402.1
|
206,358.7
|
188,439.9
|
17,918.8
|
61,225.3
|
9,896.8
|
1,546.6
|
48,961.4
|
820.6
|
34,597.7
|
30,912.8
|
3,684.9
|
6.0
|
214.5
|
|
1994
|
316,834.5
|
214,891.3
|
196,400.2
|
18,491.1
|
64,002.6
|
10,293.2
|
1,551.0
|
51,245.8
|
912.6
|
37,716.8
|
33,710.5
|
4,006.2
|
3.8
|
220.0
|
|
1995
|
332,580.5
|
224,378.2
|
205,315.3
|
19,062.8
|
67,083.1
|
10,716.7
|
1,573.4
|
53,786.2
|
1,006.8
|
40,898.2
|
36,610.2
|
4,288.1
|
2.6
|
218.5
|
|
1996
|
347,088.3
|
232,936.7
|
213,422.9
|
19,513.8
|
69,758.7
|
11,217.2
|
1,486.1
|
55,971.3
|
1,084.0
|
44,173.9
|
39,625.3
|
4,548.7
|
1.4
|
217.5
|
|
1997
|
361,970.4
|
243,589.8
|
223,553.9
|
20,035.9
|
72,504.9
|
11,659.9
|
1,465.7
|
58,221.3
|
1,158.0
|
45,659.3
|
41,082.8
|
4,576.5
|
.6
|
215.8
|
|
1998
|
374,990.7
|
252,659.0
|
232,323.9
|
20,335.1
|
73,940.4
|
11,936.0
|
1,435.2
|
59,346.7
|
1,222.6
|
48,173.4
|
43,467.0
|
4,706.4
|
.3
|
217.7
|
|
1999
|
385,768.2
|
258,885.3
|
238,478.5
|
20,406.8
|
75,336.2
|
12,125.5
|
1,414.8
|
60,528.3
|
1,267.8
|
51,331.0
|
46,458.7
|
4,872.3
|
-.2
|
215.9
|
|
2000
|
407,644.8
|
274,644.5
|
253,542.4
|
21,102.1
|
77,848.4
|
12,531.7
|
1,406.2
|
62,592.1
|
1,318.4
|
54,938.3
|
49,847.5
|
5,090.7
|
-.6
|
214.1
|
|
2001
|
431,949.0
|
290,799.1
|
268,976.1
|
21,823.0
|
81,359.2
|
13,134.3
|
1,440.9
|
65,391.5
|
1,392.6
|
59,579.3
|
54,246.4
|
5,332.9
|
-.6
|
211.9
|
|
2002
|
453,815.5
|
303,983.4
|
281,624.4
|
22,359.0
|
83,974.2
|
13,690.3
|
1,476.5
|
67,346.7
|
1,460.7
|
65,645.5
|
59,886.1
|
5,759.3
|
-.2
|
212.6
|
|
2003
|
470,797.7
|
314,051.0
|
291,517.6
|
22,533.4
|
85,634.9
|
14,072.0
|
1,486.3
|
68,564.7
|
1,512.0
|
70,905.7
|
64,811.2
|
6,094.5
|
1/
|
206.0
|
|
2004
|
493,284.3
|
327,139.9
|
304,261.0
|
22,878.9
|
87,737.1
|
14,538.4
|
1,514.8
|
70,128.3
|
1,555.6
|
78,202.3
|
71,685.5
|
6,516.8
|
-.1
|
205.1
|
|
2005-I
|
128,267.5
|
85,123.4
|
79,297.7
|
5,825.7
|
22,432.9
|
3,742.3
|
384.9
|
17,905.5
|
400.2
|
20,654.9
|
18,916.5
|
1,738.4
|
56.2
|
|
|
2005-II
|
129,043.8
|
85,568.0
|
79,715.5
|
5,852.4
|
22,576.3
|
3,790.6
|
382.6
|
17,996.1
|
406.9
|
20,846.6
|
19,083.2
|
1,763.4
|
1/
|
53.0
|
|
2005-III
|
129,532.5
|
85,895.5
|
80,052.6
|
5,842.8
|
22,551.1
|
3,706.3
|
388.6
|
18,049.7
|
406.6
|
21,036.1
|
19,299.1
|
1,737.1
|
1/
|
49.8
|
|
2005-IV
|
130,685.0
|
86,757.6
|
80,863.9
|
5,893.8
|
22,608.4
|
3,736.9
|
392.2
|
18,075.3
|
404.0
|
21,272.8
|
19,529.0
|
1,743.8
|
46.2
|
|
|
2006-I
|
133,403.7
|
88,366.0
|
82,426.8
|
5,939.2
|
23,079.3
|
3,864.5
|
388.9
|
18,410.7
|
415.1
|
21,902.2
|
20,114.0
|
1,788.2
|
56.3
|
|
|
2006-II
|
134,326.0
|
88,917.3
|
82,947.2
|
5,970.1
|
23,240.1
|
3,910.1
|
387.0
|
18,520.7
|
422.2
|
22,115.6
|
20,309.8
|
1,805.8
|
53.0
|
|
|
2006-III
|
134,937.1
|
89,363.6
|
83,398.8
|
5,964.8
|
23,220.7
|
3,813.5
|
393.1
|
18,592.2
|
421.9
|
22,302.9
|
20,530.9
|
1,772.1
|
49.9
|
|
|
2006-IV
|
136,278.9
|
90,393.2
|
84,368.7
|
6,024.5
|
23,301.2
|
3,845.4
|
397.6
|
18,638.8
|
419.4
|
22,538.2
|
20,755.6
|
1,782.6
|
46.2
|
|
|
2007-I
|
139,624.2
|
92,379.0
|
86,286.6
|
6,092.3
|
23,840.2
|
3,975.8
|
394.5
|
19,038.3
|
431.6
|
23,348.7
|
21,495.1
|
1,853.6
|
56.3
|
|
|
2007-II
|
140,674.8
|
93,041.8
|
86,911.6
|
6,130.1
|
24,022.5
|
4,021.6
|
393.0
|
19,169.0
|
438.9
|
23,557.5
|
21,683.8
|
1,873.7
|
53.0
|
|
|
2007-III
|
141,382.3
|
93,578.4
|
87,451.6
|
6,126.7
|
24,014.5
|
3,916.9
|
399.4
|
19,259.8
|
438.4
|
23,739.6
|
21,900.5
|
1,839.1
|
49.9
|
|
|
2007-IV
|
142,906.0
|
94,771.9
|
88,577.1
|
6,194.8
|
24,116.3
|
3,949.4
|
404.3
|
19,327.0
|
435.7
|
23,971.6
|
22,120.3
|
1,851.3
|
46.2
|
|
|
2008-I
|
147,213.6
|
97,403.0
|
91,108.8
|
6,294.3
|
24,808.1
|
4,100.6
|
402.9
|
19,854.2
|
450.3
|
24,946.2
|
23,008.2
|
1,938.1
|
56.2
|
|
|
2008-II
|
148,416.1
|
98,188.8
|
91,848.6
|
6,340.2
|
25,011.4
|
4,147.5
|
401.7
|
20,004.1
|
458.0
|
25,162.9
|
23,201.1
|
1,961.8
|
53.0
|
|
|
2008-III
|
149,250.3
|
98,835.5
|
92,495.7
|
6,339.9
|
25,014.0
|
4,034.6
|
408.4
|
20,113.3
|
457.6
|
25,351.0
|
23,425.4
|
1,925.6
|
49.8
|
|
|
2008-IV
|
151,010.8
|
100,234.5
|
93,816.4
|
6,418.2
|
25,137.8
|
4,068.6
|
413.7
|
20,200.5
|
455.0
|
25,592.3
|
23,652.0
|
1,940.3
|
46.2
|
|
|
2009-I
|
156,281.3
|
103,267.3
|
96,736.3
|
6,531.0
|
25,898.0
|
4,227.7
|
412.7
|
20,786.8
|
470.9
|
27,059.8
|
24,962.2
|
2,097.6
|
56.2
|
|
|
2009-II
|
157,717.0
|
104,274.3
|
97,681.9
|
6,592.4
|
26,123.7
|
4,277.6
|
411.7
|
20,955.1
|
479.3
|
27,266.1
|
25,138.3
|
2,127.8
|
52.9
|
|
|
2009-III
|
158,754.4
|
105,123.5
|
98,522.6
|
6,600.9
|
26,140.2
|
4,159.9
|
418.5
|
21,082.5
|
479.2
|
27,440.9
|
25,350.3
|
2,090.6
|
49.8
|
|
|
2009-IV
|
160,841.8
|
106,837.9
|
100,141.5
|
6,696.3
|
26,289.3
|
4,197.8
|
424.2
|
21,190.4
|
476.9
|
27,668.4
|
25,558.6
|
2,109.8
|
46.2
|
|
|
2010-I
|
165,687.0
|
110,146.2
|
103,334.5
|
6,811.7
|
27,094.4
|
4,360.5
|
422.9
|
21,817.4
|
493.6
|
28,390.3
|
26,229.2
|
2,161.2
|
56.2
|
|
|
2010-II
|
167,252.9
|
111,264.0
|
104,386.4
|
6,877.7
|
27,338.0
|
4,413.6
|
422.2
|
21,999.3
|
502.9
|
28,597.9
|
26,407.6
|
2,190.3
|
52.9
|
|
|
2010-III
|
168,438.7
|
112,250.7
|
105,361.2
|
6,889.5
|
27,365.7
|
4,292.7
|
429.5
|
22,140.2
|
503.4
|
28,772.4
|
26,625.1
|
2,147.4
|
49.8
|
|
|
2010-IV
|
170,843.4
|
114,235.8
|
107,241.2
|
6,994.7
|
27,534.8
|
4,335.1
|
435.8
|
22,262.5
|
501.6
|
29,026.6
|
26,861.1
|
2,165.5
|
46.1
|
|
|
2011-I
|
176,236.5
|
117,983.4
|
110,859.0
|
7,124.3
|
28,388.1
|
4,503.8
|
434.4
|
22,931.1
|
518.7
|
29,809.0
|
27,594.5
|
2,214.5
|
56.1
|
|
|
2011-II
|
177,974.8
|
119,243.4
|
112,041.0
|
7,202.5
|
28,653.0
|
4,560.4
|
434.1
|
23,132.9
|
525.6
|
30,025.5
|
27,781.5
|
2,244.0
|
52.9
|
|
|
2011-III
|
179,274.2
|
120,323.1
|
113,107.9
|
7,215.3
|
28,694.5
|
4,436.6
|
441.7
|
23,292.9
|
523.3
|
30,206.9
|
28,008.9
|
2,198.0
|
49.7
|
|
|
2011-IV
|
181,932.9
|
122,530.4
|
115,198.7
|
7,331.7
|
28,886.7
|
4,483.9
|
448.6
|
23,435.7
|
518.6
|
30,469.6
|
28,253.6
|
2,216.0
|
46.1
|
|
|
2012-I
|
188,218.1
|
126,577.0
|
119,121.3
|
7,455.7
|
29,793.7
|
4,658.0
|
447.1
|
24,154.4
|
534.1
|
31,791.4
|
29,450.6
|
2,340.8
|
56.1
|
|
|
2012-II
|
190,158.2
|
128,027.1
|
120,485.4
|
7,541.7
|
30,089.6
|
4,718.0
|
447.0
|
24,384.3
|
540.4
|
31,988.6
|
29,614.7
|
2,373.9
|
52.8
|
|
|
2012-III
|
191,637.4
|
129,282.8
|
121,726.2
|
7,556.6
|
30,155.4
|
4,590.7
|
454.9
|
24,572.7
|
537.1
|
32,149.6
|
29,822.8
|
2,326.8
|
49.7
|
|
|
2012-IV
|
194,619.5
|
131,795.7
|
124,111.1
|
7,684.6
|
30,383.3
|
4,643.0
|
462.4
|
24,746.6
|
531.3
|
32,394.4
|
30,047.4
|
2,346.9
|
46.1
|
|
|
2013-I
|
201,203.9
|
136,217.3
|
128,406.5
|
7,810.8
|
31,353.2
|
4,821.9
|
460.7
|
25,524.4
|
546.2
|
33,577.4
|
31,124.9
|
2,452.5
|
56.0
|
|
|
2013-II
|
203,283.6
|
137,793.0
|
129,890.8
|
7,902.3
|
31,676.4
|
4,885.5
|
460.8
|
25,778.0
|
552.1
|
33,761.3
|
31,273.9
|
2,487.4
|
52.8
|
|
|
2013-III
|
204,888.2
|
139,168.3
|
131,252.0
|
7,916.3
|
31,762.4
|
4,755.0
|
469.1
|
25,990.4
|
547.9
|
33,907.9
|
31,470.8
|
2,437.2
|
49.7
|
|
|
2013-IV
|
208,169.8
|
141,958.0
|
133,904.3
|
8,053.7
|
32,021.5
|
4,812.9
|
477.3
|
26,190.2
|
541.2
|
34,144.1
|
31,686.1
|
2,458.0
|
46.1
|
|
|
2014-I
|
215,248.9
|
146,703.1
|
138,525.3
|
8,177.7
|
33,054.6
|
4,997.4
|
475.3
|
27,025.9
|
556.1
|
35,435.1
|
32,858.2
|
2,576.9
|
56.0
|
|
|
2014-II
|
217,449.0
|
148,353.5
|
140,081.5
|
8,271.9
|
33,404.9
|
5,065.5
|
475.7
|
27,300.9
|
562.8
|
35,637.9
|
33,023.2
|
2,614.7
|
52.8
|
|
|
2014-III
|
219,164.6
|
149,803.8
|
141,520.1
|
8,283.7
|
33,510.9
|
4,932.7
|
484.4
|
27,534.8
|
559.0
|
35,800.3
|
33,238.2
|
2,562.1
|
49.7
|
|
|
2014-IV
|
222,733.1
|
152,829.6
|
144,400.7
|
8,428.9
|
33,800.7
|
4,997.4
|
493.3
|
27,757.3
|
552.7
|
36,056.8
|
33,472.1
|
2,584.7
|
46.0
|
|
| 1Less than $50,000. |
Source: All figures computed by addition of corresponding figures in two preceding tables.
Note: Future estimates based on 2005 Trustees Report intermediate set of assumptions. See tables V.A9 and V.B9 for low cost and high cost alternatives, respectively.