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| Actuarial Publications |
Summary of Provisions That Would Change the Social Security Program |
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Description of Proposed Provisions:
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Estimates based on the intermediate assumptions of the 2011 Trustees Report
| Printer-friendly Version (PDF) |
| Change from present law | Results with this provision | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
Long-range actuarial balance |
Annual balance in 75th year |
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| Present Law, Alternative II. |
-2.22 | -4.24 | ||||
| B1.1 |
Price indexing of PIA formula factors beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI
benefits in 2018: Reduce PIA formula factors so that initial benefits grow by
inflation rather than by increases in real wages. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
2.60 | 7.61 | 0.38 | 3.36 | |
| B1.2 |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals
newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of
the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the
30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile
such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation
rather than the growth in average wages. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.42 | 4.14 | -0.80 | -0.11 | |
| B1.3 |
Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals
newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of
the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the
40th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 40th percentile
such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation
rather than the growth in average wages. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.18 | 3.41 | -1.04 | -0.83 | |
| B1.4 |
Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME
distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 50th percentile
and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial
benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in
average wages. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.94 | 2.49 | -1.29 | -1.75 | |
| B1.5 |
Progressive price indexing (60th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018: Create a new bend point at the 60th percentile of the AIME
distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 60th percentile
and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 60th percentile such that the initial
benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in
average wages. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.65 | 1.53 | -1.57 | -2.71 | |
| B1.6 (2015) |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2015: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME
distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile
and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial
benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in
average wages. Young survivors (children and spouses under normal retirement age with a child in care)
are not affected by this proposal. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age;
and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon
conversion to retired worker beneficiary status. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bennett) |
1.49 | 3.89 | -0.74 | -0.35 | |
| B1.6 (2020) |
Progressive price indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2020: Create a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME
distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile
and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial
benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in
average wages. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to
a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to
retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) |
1.10 | 3.50 | -1.12 | -0.74 | |
| B1.7 |
Progressive price indexing (40th percentile) of PIA formula factors for individuals newly eligible for
OASI benefits in 2019 through 2056: Create a new bend point at the 40th percentile of the AIME
distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefit credit for earners at the 40th percentile
and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 formula factors above the 40th percentile such that the initial benefit for a
worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in average wages.
Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional
reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary
status. Young survivors (children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Graham, Paul, Lee) |
0.92 | 2.40 | -1.31 | -1.85 | |
| B1.8 |
Progressive price indexing (50th percentile) of PIA formula factors for individuals newly eligible for
OASI benefits in 2016 through 2055: Create a new bend point at the 50th percentile of the AIME distribution
of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefit credit for earners at the 50th percentile and below.
Reduce the 32 and 15 formula factors above the 50th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with
AIME equal to the taxable maximum grows by inflation rather than the growth in average wages. Disabled workers
are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits,
based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
0.92 | 2.14 | -1.30 | -2.10 | |
| B2.1 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2021, multiply the PIA factors by the ratio of
life expectancy at 67 for 2016 to the life expectancy at age 67 for the 4th year prior to the year of
benefit eligibility. Unisex life expectancies, based on period life tables as computed by SSA's Office
of the Chief Actuary, are used to determine the ratio. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to
normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's
years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) | memo (Bennett) |
0.57 | 1.89 | -1.65 | -2.35 | |
| B3.1 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2012, multiply the 32 and 15 percent
formula factors each year by 0.987. Stop reductions in 2042, when the formula factors reach 21
percent and 10 percent, respectively. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
1.49 | 2.89 | -0.73 | -1.36 | |
| B3.2 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2019, multiply the 90 and 32 percent
PIA factors each year by 0.9925 and 0.982, respectively. Stop reductions in 2056. Beginning
with those newly eligible for OASI benefits in 2014, multiply the 15 factor by 0.982. Stop
reduction of the 15 factor in 2051. Child beneficiaries and spouses with a child in care under
the OASI program are not affected by this proposal. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior
to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the
worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Liebman, MacGuineas, Samwick) |
1.97 | 5.19 | -0.26 | 0.95 | |
| B3.3 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2012, use a modified primary insurance
amount (PIA) formula. The modified formula: (1) increases the first bend point to the equivalent
of $800 in 2009; (2) places a new bend point 75 percent of the way between the reset first bend
point and the current-law second bend point; (3) lowers the PIA factor between the new bend point
and the upper bend point from 32% to 20%; and (4) lowers the factor above the upper bend point
from 15% to 10%.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (AARP) |
0.22 | 0.26 | -2.01 | -3.98 | |
| B3.4 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2015, multiply all PIA formula factors
each year by 0.991. Stop reductions after 2043. Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to
normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the
worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status. Young survivors
(children of deceased workers and surviving spouses with a child in care) are not affected.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
1.46 | 3.10 | -0.76 | -1.14 | |
| B3.5 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2014, continuing through 2051, and resuming in 2072: Create a new
bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain
current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent
formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal
to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.2 percent per year as compared to current law (for the years
that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement
age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability,
upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
1.28 | 3.01 | -0.95 | -1.23 | |
| B3.6 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2014, continuing through 2063: Create a new bend point at the 30th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain current-law benefits for earners
at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent formula factors above the 30th percentile
such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.2 percent
per year as compared to current law (for the years that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are:
(a) not affected prior to normal retirement age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits,
based on the worker's years of disability, upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
1.36 | 3.46 | -0.87 | -0.78 | |
| B3.7 |
Progressive indexing (30th percentile) of PIA formula factors beginning with individuals newly
eligible for OASI benefits in 2014, continuing through 2023, and then resuming in 2062: Create
a new bend point at the 30th percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers. Maintain
current-law benefits for earners at the 30th percentile and below. Reduce the 32 and 15 percent
formula factors above the 30th percentile such that the initial benefit for a worker with AIME equal
to the taxable maximum is reduced by 1.2 percent per year as compared to current law (for the years
that progressive indexing applies). Disabled workers are: (a) not affected prior to normal retirement
age; and (b) subject to a proportional reduction in benefits, based on the worker's years of disability,
upon conversion to retired worker beneficiary status.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (NRC/NAPA) |
0.61 | 1.59 | -1.62 | -2.66 | |
| B3.8 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2018, create a new bend point at the 50th
percentile of the AIME distribution of newly retired workers and gradually reduce all PIA formula
factors except for the 90 percent factor. By 2051: a) the 32 percent PIA formula factor below the
new bend point reduces to 30 percent; b) the 32 percent PIA factor above the new bend point reduces
to 10 percent; and c) the 15 percent factor reduces to 5 percent.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
0.85 | 2.12 | -1.38 | -2.12 | |
| B3.9 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2024, gradually reduce the 15 percent PIA
formula factor in each year so that it reaches 10 percent for those newly eligible in 2053 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
0.07 | 0.21 | -2.15 | -4.04 | |
| B3.10 |
Beginning with those newly eligible for OASDI benefits in 2013, gradually increase the first PIA
bend point in each year so that it is 15 percent higher for those newly eligible in 2022 and later.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Harkin) |
-0.44 | -0.70 | -2.67 | -4.94 | |
| B4.1 |
Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for
disabled workers) from 35 to 38, phased in over the years 2012-2016.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.29 | 0.43 | -1.93 | -3.82 | |
| B4.2 |
Increase the number of years used to calculate benefits for retirees and survivors (but not for
disabled workers) from 35 to 40, phased in over the years 2012-2020. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.47 | 0.72 | -1.76 | -3.53 | |
| B4.3 |
For the OASI and DI computation of the PIA, gradually reduce the maximum number of drop-out years
from 5 to 0, phased in over the years 2013-2021.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Warshawsky) |
0.63 | 1.00 | -1.60 | -3.24 | |
| B5.1 |
Increase the PIA to a level such that a worker with 30 years of earnings at the minimum wage level
receives an adjusted PIA equal to 120 percent of the Federal poverty level for an aged individual.
This provision takes full effect for all newly eligible OASDI workers in 2029, and is phased in for
new eligibles in 2020 through 2028. The percentage increase in PIA is lowered proportionately for
those with fewer than 30 years of earnings, down to no enhancement for workers with 20 or fewer
years of earnings. (Year-of-work requirements are "scaled" for disabled workers based on their years
of potential work from age 22 to benefit eligibility). The benefit enhancement percentage is reduced
proportionately for workers with higher average indexed monthly earnings (AIME), down to no enhancement
for those with AIME at least twice that of a 35-year steady minimum wage earner.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Ryan 2010) |
-0.01 | 0.00 | -2.24 | -4.24 | |
| B5.2 |
Beginning in 2012, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a
year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years
of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,128 in 2010). For those
with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,128/20 = $56.40.
(c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.19 | -0.27 | -2.41 | -4.51 | |
| B5.3 |
Beginning in 2012, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined to be
either a year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are
granted to parents who have a child under 5, with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set
the PIA for 30 years of coverage equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,128 in
2010). For those with under 30 years of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is
$1,128/20 = $56.40. (c) Index the initial PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.28 | -0.41 | -2.50 | -4.66 | |
| B5.4 |
Beginning in 2018, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year
in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of coverage
equal to 125 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $1,128 in 2010). For those with under 30 years
of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $1,128/20 = $56.40. (c) From 2010 to the year
of implementation, 2018, index the PIA per year of coverage using the chain-CPI index. Then, for later
years, index the PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements
for disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
-0.12 | -0.21 | -2.35 | -4.45 | |
| B5.5 |
Beginning in 2013, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined as a year
in which either 20% of the "old law maximum" is earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted
to parents who have a child under 6, with a limit of 8 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for
30 years of coverage equal to 133 percent of the poverty level. For those with under 30 years of coverage,
the PIA per year of coverage over 19 is 12.09 percent of poverty. (c) Use the 2010 Aged Federal poverty level,
increased by the average wage index to 2 years prior to benefit eligibility. (d) Scale work requirements for
disabled workers, based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
-0.10 | -0.15 | -2.32 | -4.39 | |
| B5.6 |
Beginning in 2012, reconfigure the special minimum benefit: (a) A year of coverage is defined to be either a
year in which 4 quarters of coverage are earned or a child is in care. Childcare years are granted to parents
who have a child under 6, with a limit of 5 such years. (b) At implementation, set the PIA for 30 years of
coverage equal to 100 percent of the monthly poverty level (about $908 in 2011). For those with under 30 years
of coverage, the PIA per year of coverage over 10 years is $908/20 = $45.40. (c) From 2011 to the year of
implementation, 2012, index the PIA per year of coverage using the CPI index. Then, for later years, index the
PIA per year of coverage by wage growth for successive cohorts. (d) Scale work requirements for disabled workers,
based on the number of years of non-disabled potential work.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
-0.11 | -0.17 | -2.33 | -4.42 | |
| B6.1 |
Provide a 5 percent increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at
the beginning of 2012 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2012.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.10 | -0.14 | -2.32 | -4.39 | |
| B6.2 |
Provide the same dollar amount increase to the monthly benefit amount (MBA) of any beneficiary who is 85 or
older at the beginning of 2012 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2012. The dollar
amount of increase equals 5 percent of the average retired worker MBA in the prior year.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.10 | -0.15 | -2.33 | -4.39 | |
| B6.3 |
Provide an increase in the benefit level of any beneficiary who is 85 or older at the beginning of
2013 or who reaches their 85th birthday after the beginning of 2013. Increase the beneficiary’s PIA
based on an amount equal to the average retired worker PIA at the end of 2012, or at the end of the
year age 80 if later. Increase the beneficiary’s PIA by 5 percent of this amount for those older
than 85 at the beginning of 2013 and by 5 percent of this amount at age 85 for others, phased in at
1 percent per year for ages 81-85.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Bipartisan Policy Center) |
-0.13 | -0.19 | -2.36 | -4.43 | |
| B6.4 |
Starting in 2012, provide a 5 percent uniform benefit increase 24 years after initial benefit eligibility.
Phase in the benefit increase at 1 percent per year from the 20th through 24th years after eligibility. For
disabled workers, the eligibility age is the initial entitlement year to the benefit. The benefit increase
is equal to 5 percent of the PIA of a worker assumed to have career-average earnings equal to SSA’s
average wage index.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Fiscal Commission) |
-0.14 | -0.20 | -2.36 | -4.44 | |
| B7.1 |
Reduce benefits by 3 percent for those newly eligible for benefits in 2012 and later. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.37 | 0.50 | -1.86 | -3.75 | |
| B7.2 |
Reduce benefits by 5 percent for those newly eligible for benefits in 2012 and later. graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Social Security Advisory Board) |
0.61 | 0.83 | -1.61 | -3.42 | |
| B7.3 |
Give credit to parents with a child under 6 for earnings for up to five years. The earnings credited
for a childcare year equal one half of the Social Security average-wage index (about $20,922 in 2010).
The credits are available for all past years to newly eligible retired-worker and disabled-worker
beneficiaries starting in 2012. The 5 years are chosen to yield the largest increase in AIME.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.24 | -0.37 | -2.47 | -4.61 | |
| B7.4 |
Increase benefits by 2 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2012 and for
those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2012.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.30 | -0.33 | -2.53 | -4.58 | |
| B7.5 |
Increase benefits by 5 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2012 and for
those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2012.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-0.75 | -0.83 | -2.98 | -5.07 | |
| B7.6 |
Increase benefits by 20 percent for all beneficiaries as of the beginning of 2012 and for
those newly eligible for benefits after the beginning of 2012.
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (National Academy of Social Insurance) |
-3.02 | -3.31 | -5.24 | -7.56 | |
| B7.7 |
Reduce individual Social Security benefits if modified adjusted gross income, or MAGI (AGI
less taxable Social Security benefits plus nontaxable interest income) is above $60,000 for
single taxpayers or $120,000 for taxpayers filing jointly. This provision is effective for
individuals newly eligible for benefits in 2019 or later. The percentage reduction increases
linearly up to 50 percent for single/joint filers with MAGI of $180,000/$360,000 or above.
Index the MAGI thresholds for years after 2019, based on changes in the average wage index (AWI).
graph | table | pdf-graph | pdf-table | memo (Chaffetz) |
0.24 | 0.36 | -1.98 | -3.88 | |
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